Travelers Yes | Forecast Readers No
For those that don't know, Smythe and Stefan are in the northern Guanacaste region of Costa Rica right now. They pulled the trigger on a last minute strike to go catch some surf. Their plan, last I heard it, was to stay up in north around Tamarindo and Playas Del Coco and make a multitude of strikes to Witches Rock , Ollies, and my favorite, "The Labyrinth". At first glance the forecast for all of Costa Rica looks great for today and the remainder of the weekend.... check it out.
"SSW groundswell (~195-205) will peak going into the second half of the week and hold fairly steady on Friday before slowly fading this weekend. Thursday sees exposed spots go head high to several feet overhead off the Southern Hemi swell, as a solid dose of SW windswell joins in for more size. However, steady SW winds, along with heavy rain, will prevail for mainly choppy condition. On Friday, SW windswell backs down as the SSW groundswell holds, still head-overhead surf on tap with improving conditions. Saturday morning will see fading SSW energy and clean surf in the 4-5'+ range.
Further out; a new S groundswell (185-190) fills in on Sunday and into early next week with some fun waves in the waist-chest-shoulder high plus range."
But herein lies the problem: the Guanacaste peninsula is shaped like a boot, and Ollies and Witches are up by the heel. The bottom of the boot takes a direct hit from this steep south, but the upper part of the boot just gets the scraps of the swell, almost nothing.
The only way for them to have known this is if they read beyond the basic forecast, and looked at the lola model and the surf spot forecasts;
I sent them both an email to this effect, but I think my efforts were too late, my email went out after their departure. Here is my email.
"you guys need to look at the surf spot forecasts and the lola nearshore swell tracking models..
It looks like northern costa is going to be completely blocked from the swell.. Tamarino / Ollies are going to be getting scraps..
Central and South Guanacaste will be getting the juice and are not in a swell blocked area. "
So here is my question to the other donkeys:
"SSW groundswell (~195-205) will peak going into the second half of the week and hold fairly steady on Friday before slowly fading this weekend. Thursday sees exposed spots go head high to several feet overhead off the Southern Hemi swell, as a solid dose of SW windswell joins in for more size. However, steady SW winds, along with heavy rain, will prevail for mainly choppy condition. On Friday, SW windswell backs down as the SSW groundswell holds, still head-overhead surf on tap with improving conditions. Saturday morning will see fading SSW energy and clean surf in the 4-5'+ range.
Further out; a new S groundswell (185-190) fills in on Sunday and into early next week with some fun waves in the waist-chest-shoulder high plus range."
But herein lies the problem: the Guanacaste peninsula is shaped like a boot, and Ollies and Witches are up by the heel. The bottom of the boot takes a direct hit from this steep south, but the upper part of the boot just gets the scraps of the swell, almost nothing.
The only way for them to have known this is if they read beyond the basic forecast, and looked at the lola model and the surf spot forecasts;
I sent them both an email to this effect, but I think my efforts were too late, my email went out after their departure. Here is my email.
"you guys need to look at the surf spot forecasts and the lola nearshore swell tracking models..
It looks like northern costa is going to be completely blocked from the swell.. Tamarino / Ollies are going to be getting scraps..
Central and South Guanacaste will be getting the juice and are not in a swell blocked area. "
So here is my question to the other donkeys:
posted by ICE at
7:01 AM
3 Comments:
Do you honestly think there is a forecast that Smythe does not look at?
Ditto for Stefan.
Stefan was already calculating like Rainman about how Mal Pais (the bottom on the Nicoya peninsula) will be getting the brunt of the swell, as he was boarding his plane.
you should put up another couple of polls, they are neat. the smythe and i surfed witches this morning, head high all alone and play negra overhead about an hour ago (all alone). we are dawn patroling to mal pais in the morning to catch the remainder of the swell. once it goes flat and we aren´t surfing (like you donkeys), we may put a poll together of our own...but we could be too drunk off of imperial and guaro. (i may be too drunk right now)
the smythe recomends that i put in the word ´bitches´somewhere...so please insert it where it applies
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